Last week I had the opportunity to attend a TradeMe job breakfast in Christchurch and hear from well-regarded economist Shamubeel Eaqub about what the job market is predicted to do this year.

His opening commentary acknowledged that positivity in the economy had been building since late 2025 until the Trump/Iran fuel crisis added a layer of uncertainty none of us were pricing in twelve months ago. In his own words: "New Zealand's recession hit its floor in early 2026. The path ahead looked difficult but navigable. Then came the war on Iran."

Despite the sobering backdrop, Shamubeel made an important point: the labour market doesn't stop, even in a flat economy. Last year there were over a million job movements in a workforce of 2.4 million. Downturns slow hiring decisions but they don't eliminate the underlying need to recruit.

What This Means for Employers

With it being an election year in NZ (where businesses tend to be more cautious), hiring will still happen, but decisions may be more drawn out. In the legal market, where qualified candidates are already in short supply, the ability to move quickly and hire strategically has never been more important.

Key Takeaways from the Data

Worker mobility is surging. Nearly half of all workers anticipate changing jobs this year, and worker mobility intent has jumped from 64% in 2025 to 89% in 2026. Almost all survey respondents said they were open to hearing about a new role, even if not actively looking. This is a real opportunity for employers.

Culture is now the #1 driver. The biggest shift from 2025 to 2026 is that people are no longer moving primarily for salary, they're moving to escape their current role. "Unhappiness with business culture" and "feeling undervalued" ranked above low salary and burnout as the main reasons candidates are looking. Salary still matters (especially with the cost of living crisis), but it's rarely enough on its own.

Flexibility is non-negotiable. Candidates now treat ambiguity around flexible working and career progression as a red flag. As the fuel crisis puts further pressure on household budgets, I expect the desire to work from home a day or two each week to grow even stronger in the months ahead.

Hire for potential, not perfection. Businesses holding out for the perfect-fit hire are going to wait, and wait. A candidate who needs six months of development is more available, more loyal, and more cost-effective than one who takes 12 months to recruit. In legal recruitment, we see this regularly: firms with 8 out of 10 requirements met will sometimes hold out for the unicorn and find themselves still searching 12–24 months later, while their existing team bears the pressure.

According to the latest Thomson Reuters report (March 2026), "the overall economic outlook for New Zealand law firms is the strongest it has been in several years." Demand is growing for transactional work, while counter-cyclical practice areas, insolvency, employment law, commercial litigation, and particularly dispute resolution have continued to perform strongly.

Firms are more proactive in their recruitment approaches this year, with most demand centred on mid-level lawyers (3–6 years PQE). This remains a tough search, given how many lawyers in this range have moved to Australia or overseas in recent years.

The firms that win in 2026 will be those who are strategic about retention, genuinely responsive to what candidates actually want (competitive pay, flexibility, and clear progression) and open-minded enough to hire for potential as well as pedigree.​